Intrade Now Trading An Obamacare Security

Intrade added a security to track the progress and chance of passage of health care reform before July 1, 2010. At expiry at midnight, June 30, 2010, the security pays either 100 or 0 depending on the passage of health care reform or not.

The last trading price can be viewed as the percentage chance of passage of a health care law that satisfies the requirements of the contract. The last price as of this writing is 38, which indicates a 38 percent chance health care reform will pass by midnight, June 30, 2010.

The contract specifics are:

The "contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if a healthcare reform bill is passed into law before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if if a healthcare reform bill is not passed into law before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.

Expiry will be based on the official passage of a healthcare reform bill into law, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

For purposes of this contract a healthcare reform bill is considered one of the following:

- The Affordable Health Care for America Act (H.R. 3962)
- The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (H.R. 3590)
- A bill reconciling the differences between the two bills named above

If any of these bills are passed into law the contract will expire at 100. If none of these three are passed into law the contract will expire at 0."

Obamacare health care security price chart: