Thursday, February 28, 2019

New York City Metro Area Has The Largest Outmigration Of 25–34 Year Olds

From City Journal, "Where Millennials Really Go for Jobs: Contrary to media hype, tech firms and young workers aren’t flocking to “superstar” cities." by Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox, February 27, 2019:
[A]s a new Brookings study shows, millennials are not moving en masse to metros with dense big cities, but away from them. According to demographer Bill Frey, the 2013–2017 American Community Survey shows that New York now suffers the largest net annual outmigration of post-college millennials (ages 25–34) of any metro area—some 38,000 annually—followed by Los Angeles, Chicago, and San Diego. New York’s losses are 75 percent higher than during the previous five-year period.

By contrast, the biggest winner is Houston, a metro area that many planners and urban theorists regard with contempt. The Bayou City gained nearly 15,000 millennials net last year, while other big gainers included Dallas–Fort Worth and Austin, which gained 12,700 and 9,000, respectively. Last year, according to a Texas realtors report, a net 22,000 Californians moved to the Lone Star State.

The other top metros for millennials were Charlotte, Phoenix, and Nashville, as well as four relatively expensive areas: Seattle, Denver, Portland, and Riverside–San Bernardino. The top 20 magnets include Midwest locales such as Minneapolis–St. Paul, Columbus, and Kansas City, all areas where average house prices, adjusted for incomes, are half or less than those in California, and at least one-third less than in New York.

Perhaps even more significant has been the geographic shift within metro areas. The media frequently has exaggerated millennial growth in the urban cores. In reality, nearly 80 percent of millennial population growth since 2010 has been in the suburbs.
From Brookings Report, "How migration of millennials and seniors has shifted since the Great Recession" by William H. Frey, January 31, 2019:

Sunday, February 17, 2019

US Debt Level Thoughts: My Posted WSJ Comment To "Worry About Debt? Not So Fast, Some Economists Say"

My posted comment to The Wall Street Journal, "Worry About Debt? Not So Fast, Some Economists Say U.S. deficits may not matter so much after all—and it might not hurt to expand them for the right reasons" by David Harrison and Kate Davidson:
Interest expense on US debt is a manageable amount of the budget. In 2018, interest expense was 7.4% of the federal budget. In 2019, it is expected to be 8.5% percent of the budget and to grow to 12.5% around 2025. Unlike households or corporations, the US does not set aside or amortize principal. It waits until maturity of the debt. Its expense is almost exclusively interest payment. The average maturity of US public debt has been slowly increasing and is around 6 years now. When debt matures, the Treasury typically refinances the principal due with new debt. If 10 year US Treasury bond payments included amortizing principal payments, like residential household mortgages, it yearly debt payments would be about 4.5 times as much. With private debt, the inability to refinance or pay off the principal amount at maturity is an important component of default risk and the interest rate demanded. With US bonds, maturity and interest payment risk is a small risk factor. Low risk, low rate.

Friday, February 15, 2019

Developing Countries Create Most Global CO2 Emissions

From The Wall Street Journal, Real Time Economics, Commentary, "The Green New Deal’s Global Blind Spot: U.S. policy could do the most good by targeting innovation other countries can exploit" by Greg Ip:
The [Green New] deal targets U.S. emissions, yet the harm from global warming—extreme weather, heat, rising sea levels—comes from global emissions. This year, the U.S. will contribute 15% of the world’s carbon-dioxide emissions, according to the International Energy Agency. China will contribute 30% and India, 7%. By 2040, the U.S. share will drop to 12%, China’s to 27%, and India’s will rise to 14%.

Thus, even if the Green New Deal introduced by some Democrats last week succeeds in reducing U.S. emissions to zero, this will benefit Americans little unless other countries, in particular China and India, do the same.
Global CO2
Source: Wall Street Journal, Real Time Economics