Cleveland Fed Predicts 0.8 Percent Yearly GDP Growth And 1.7 Percent Chance Of Recession

From The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, "Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth" by Joseph G. Haubrich, Vice President and Economist and Margaret Jacobson, Research Analyst, August 3, 2011:

Projecting forward using past values of the spread [10-year Treasury over 3-month Treasury yields] and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 0.8 percent rate over the next year, down slightly from June’s 1.1 percent, most likely a reflection weak GDP numbers for the first two quarters of this year.***Using the yield curve to predict whether or not the economy will be in recession in the future, we estimate that the expected chance of the economy being in a recession next July is 1.7 percent, even with June’s prediction and up just a bit from May’s 1.3 percent.