21.8 Percent Probability US Now In A Recession: Atlanta Fed

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Center for Quantitative Economic Research, "Real Time Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle" by Marcelle Chauvet, professor of economics at the University of California, Riverside, and research director of the Center for Research on Economic and Financial Cycles:

Current probability of recession

Because of a two-month delay in the availability of the manufacturing and trade sales series, the probabilities of recession are also available only with a two-month delay.***The most recent probability of recession from the DFMS model is for May 2011, which uses information up to August 2011. The probability that the U.S. economy is in a recession as of May 2011 is 21.8 percent. [Emphasis added]