Lasting Earnings Effects Of Entering Labor Market During High Unemployment

Entering Labor Force During Recession Has Enduring Effect on Wages:
For the 1982 Cohort, $100,000 NPV Loss in First 20 Years of Career

We often hear about people who are unlucky in love, but what of those who are unlucky in the business cycle? What is the impact of being born two decades before a significant economic downturn, such that you graduate from college and enter the labor force in the middle of a period of high unemployment?

As the class of 2009 is keenly aware, entering the labor market during a recession has immediate negative effects. Job offers are harder to find: according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers, less than 20 percent of the class of 2009 graduated from college with a job offer in hand, compared to 25 percent in the class of 2008 and more than 50 percent in the class of 2007. Whereas year to year starting salaries on average tend to increase, with the tough competition in this year’s labor market, average starting offers for the class of 2009 are slightly down.

Read more of "Birth date, business cycles, and lifetime income" by Peter Orszag, Director OMB, Thursday, October 22nd, 2009, here.