7.2 Percent Probability US In Recession, Atlanta Fed Finds

From The Atlanta Fed Center for Quantitative Economic Research, Center for Research on Economic and Financial Cycles, "Real Time Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle" by Marcelle Chauvet, professor of economics at the University of California, Riverside, and research director of the Center for Research on Economic and Financial Cycles:

The most recent probability of recession from the DFMS [Dynamic Factor Markov Switching] model is for November 2011, which uses information up to February 2012. The probability that the U.S. economy is in a recession as of November 2011 is 7.2 percent.