Election Markets Predict Neither Democrats Nor Republicans Will Control US Senate After 2014 Election

There is a 22.5 percent chance that enough Independent or other Third Party candidates will get elected to Congress in 2014 to prevent Republicans from gaining control of both Houses of Congress. The current odds widely favor the Republicans holding onto a majority in the House.

The Iowa Electronic Market is trading election securities for control of Congress. The Iowa Electronics Market election securities are currently showing a an 8.3 percent chance that the Republicans will lose control of the House. The election securities are showing a 60.5 percent chance that the Democrats will lose control of the Senate.

Market Quotes: House14
2014 House Control Market.

Quotes current as of 01:45:03 CST, Saturday, May 17, 2014.

Symbol	Bid	Ask	Last	Low	High	Average
RH.gain14	0.421	0.499	0.470	---	---	---
RH.hold14	0.430	0.469	0.469	---	---	---
RH.lose14	0.062	0.085	0.083	---	---	---

Market Quotes: Senate14
2014 Senate Control Market.

Quotes current as of 01:45:03 CST, Saturday, May 17, 2014.

Symbol	Bid	Ask	Last	Low	High	Average
DS.gain14	0.018	0.029	0.018	---	---	---
DS.hold14	0.378	0.399	0.393	---	---	---
DS.lose14	0.589	0.606	0.605	---	---	---

In addition to the four securities for the likely combinations of House-Senate combinations, Democrat-Democrat, Democrat-Republican, Republican-Democrat, and Republican-Republican, the market also trades an OTHER security that reflects neither of the 4 previous listed obvious combinations. The current price of the OTHER election security is 22.5. On April 22, 2014, the price was 8.1 and has been rising since.

Market Quotes: Congress14
2014 Congressional Control Market.

Quotes current as of 01:45:03 CST, Saturday, May 17, 2014.

Symbol	Bid	Ask	Last	Low	High	Average
DH_DS14	0.052	0.069	0.069	---	---	---
DH_RS14	0.007	0.008	0.007	---	---	---
RH_DS14	0.265	0.298	0.290	---	---	---
RH_RS14	0.354	0.449	0.426	---	---	---
OTHER14	0.225	0.250	0.225	---	---	---

With the low probability that the Republicans will lose House control, the likely scenario for the OTHER security is that the Republicans maintain control of the House but neither the Democrats nor Republican have control of the Senate after the 2014 Congressional election. This scenario can happen if enough Independent or Third Party candidates are elected to the US Senate to prevent either of the two major political parties, Democrats and Republicans, from having control of the Senate. The election security markets are giving the OTHER option a 22.5 percent chance of happening.