Medicare And Social Security Benefits Received Versus Taxes Paid By Decade Of Birth: CBO

From Congressional Budget Office, "Medicare and Social Security Payroll Taxes and Benefits for People in Different Birth Cohorts" by Noah Meyerson & Julie Topoleski:

Medicare Benefits And Taxes
***According to CBO’s projections, under the assumption that all scheduled benefits are paid, real median lifetime Medicare benefits (net of premiums paid) and real median lifetime payroll taxes would be greater, in general, for each successive cohort (see the figure below). Over their lifetime, beneficiaries born in the 1940s would, on average, receive about $160,000 in benefits (net of premiums paid) and pay about $45,000 in payroll taxes (both figures are expressed in 2013 dollars). Those born in the 1950s would receive, on average, about $205,000 in benefits and pay about $60,000 in payroll taxes, CBO estimates. And those born in the 1960s would receive, on average, about $270,000 in benefits and pay about $65,000 in payroll taxes.

Source: CBO

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Social Security Benefits And Taxes
***According to CBO’s projections, under the assumption that all scheduled benefits are paid, real median lifetime Social Security benefits and real median lifetime payroll taxes would be greater, in general, for each successive cohort (see the figure below). Over their lifetime, beneficiaries born in the 1940s would, on average, receive about $190,000 in benefits and pay about $205,000 in payroll taxes. Those born in the 1960s would, on average, receive $240,000 in benefits and pay $245,000 in payroll taxes; and those born in the 1980s would, on average, receive $310,000 in benefits and pay $260,000 in payroll taxes. For workers born from the 1940s through the 1980s, taken all together, lifetime payroll taxes would be roughly equal to lifetime benefits. But benefits for earlier generations were considerably larger than their payroll taxes, and that historical imbalance contributes to the system’s ongoing financial shortfall. (Because Social Security benefits are more predictable than Medicare benefits, CBO has extended its projections for Social Security further into the future.)

Source: CBO

The calculations of lifetime benefits and payroll taxes are based on a real discount rate of 3.0 percent, the average long-term interest rate projected by CBO for securities held in the trust funds for Medicare and Social Security.