Friday, January 4, 2013

Correction: Yield Curve Slope Predicts 0.6 (Not 0.7) Percent Real GDP Growth In 2013: Federal Reserve Bank Of Cleveland

Posted by Milton Recht:

CORRECTION: Due to an editorial error, a previous version of the Cleveland Federal Reserve GDP yield curve prediction was used in the original version of this post. The corrected GDP growth prediction is 0.6 percent growth and not 0.7 as originally posted.

Federal Reserve Bank Of Cleveland, "Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth, December 2012" by Joseph G. Haubrich, VP, and Patricia Waiwood:
Projecting forward using past values of the spread [difference between long and short interest rates] and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 0.6 percent rate over the next year, even with both October and November. The strong influence of the recent recession is still leading towards relatively low growth rates. Although the time horizons do not match exactly, the forecast comes in on the more pessimistic side of other predictions but like them, it does show moderate growth for the year.

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