Thursday, September 22, 2011

Election Markets Show Republicans To Take Commanding Popular Vote Lead In 2012 But Electoral College Still A Tossup

Price data for the 2012 presidential election voting share securities, from the Iowa Electronic Markets, shows that the Republicans are widening their lead in the popular vote for the next president. As it now stands, the public's vote for US president between the two major political parties, Republicans and Democrats, will be split 52.5 percent for the Republicans and 47.5 percent for the Democrats.

From Iowa Electronic Markets
2012 US Presidential Election Markets
Of course, it is the Electoral College and not the popular vote that decides which candidate will become the next President of the US.

The Intrade security for which political party will win the 2012 presidential election shows that the two parties, Democrats and Republicans, are virtually tied as to who will win the US Presidency in 2012 based on Electoral College votes. Intrade gives the Republicans a 49.1 percent chance of winning in 2012 and it gives the Democrats a 49 percent chance of winning the presidency.

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