Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Trump's Intrade Republican Nomination and Presidential Election Securities Unimpressed By Obama's Birth Certificate Release

Donald Trump's Intrade security prices for him to get the Republican presidential nomination and win the presidential election unfazed by Obama's release of his birth certificate.

Trump currently has the best Republican chance to beat Obama in the next presidential election. Trump has a 67 percent chance conditional probability of beating Obama in the next election. However, he also has a very low chance, 8.8 percent, of getting the Republican nomination,

Intrade's presidential election winner security prices are conditional on first winning the nomination. So its price is the odds of getting the nomination times the true odds of winning the presidency equals the Intrade security presidential winner price. For Trump the numbers are 8.8 percent x true odds of winning equals 5.9 percent. Trumps current odds, 11:10 AM EST, April 27, 2011, of winning are 5.9/8.8 or 67 percent.

See my blog post of April 20, 2011, "Need To Consider Conditional Probabilities Of Intrade Prices To Find Winning Odds Of Republican Presidential Candidates."

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