Wednesday, April 27, 2011

China's Energy Use And Carbon Emissions To Level Off By 2035

From "A surprise: China’s energy consumption will stabilize" on ScienceBlog, April 27, 2011:
Yet according to this new forecast, the steeply rising curve of energy demand in China will begin to moderate between 2030 and 2035 and flatten thereafter. There will come a time — within the next two decades — when the number of people in China acquiring cars, larger homes, and other accouterments of industrialized societies will peak. It’s a phenomenon known as saturation. “Once nearly every household owns a refrigerator, a washing machine, air conditioners and other appliances, and once housing area per capita has stabilized, per household electricity growth will slow,” [Mark] Levine [co-author of the report, "China’s Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050"] explains.

Similarly, China will reach saturation in road and rail construction before the 2030-2035 time frame, resulting in very large decreases in iron and steel demand. Additionally, other energy-intensive industries will see demand for their products flatten
.Read the full article here.

The full 63-page PDF report is available here.

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