Top Ten US Markets In Rent Growth

From MarketWatch, "As rents skyrocket, here is where they’re increasing the most. Hint: It’s NOT New York or San Francisco" By Jacob Passy: Published: Sept. 16, 2021 at 11:06 a.m. ET:

 

Here are the top 10 markets in terms of rent growth:

Rank	Metro	Overall rent	Rent growth from 2020
1	Tampa-St. Petersburg- Clearwater, Fla.	$1,760	30.6%
2	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.	$2,234	28.6%
3	Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.	$2,432	27%
4	Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.	$1,688	25.5%
5	Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.	$1,515	23.4%
6	San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.	$2,695	23.4%
7	Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.	$1,200	21.8%
8	Austin-Round Rock, Texas	$1,618	21.7%
9	Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.	$1,620	21.4%
10	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.	$1,697	21.2%

Renewable Energy Facing Land Use Restrictions: WSJ Video

From The Wall Street Journal, WSJ Video, "Why Environmentalists Are Fighting Renewable Energy Development: Political battles at the most local levels are slowing the pace of decarbonization" by Carlos Waters, Aug 23, 2021:

Full Report: Investigation Into Allegations Of Sexual Harassment By Governor Andrew M Cuomo By Office Of NY Attorney General Letitia James

From Offfice of New York Attorney General Letitia James, "REPORT OF INVESTIGATION INTO ALLEGATIONS OF SEXUAL HARASSMENT BY GOVERNOR ANDREW M. CUOMO:"

Report of Investigation Int... by Milton Recht

CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic Projections Presentation, July 20, 2021

From "CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic Projections"
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, to J.P. Morgan’s Virtual Investor Meeting, July 20, 2021:

In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit equals $3.0 trillion in fiscal year 2021 and averages $1.2 trillion per year over the 2022–2031 period, under the assumption that existing laws governing taxes and spending generally remain unchanged. Because of those large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to reach 103 percent of GDP at the end of fiscal year 2021 and 106 percent of GDP, the highest level in the nation’s history, in 2031.

Real GDP is projected to increase by 7.4 percent and surpass its potential level by the end of calendar year 2021. The annual growth of real GDP averages 2.8 percent from 2021 to 2025, and 1.6 percent during the 2026–2031 period. Employment is projected to grow quickly in the second half of calendar year 2021 and to surpass its prepandemic level in mid-2022.

CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic Projections from Congressional Budget Office

Map: Gross Domestic Product Growth by State, 1st Quarter 2021

From Bureau of Economic Analysis, Friday, June 25, 2021, "Gross Domestic Product by State, 1st Quarter 2021: Nevada had the largest increase in the first quarter:"

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2021, as real GDP for the nation increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the first quarter ranged from 10.9 percent in Nevada to 2.9 percent in the District of Columbia.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

Argument For Lower Or Even No Corporate Taxes: A Reprint

Reprint of my 2017 blog post about corporate taxes in response to a Larry Summers article in the Washington Post.

Sunday, October 22, 2017

My Posted Comment To Larry Summers' Washington Post Piece Against Lowering Corporate Taxes

Posted By Milton Recht

My posted comment to The Washington Post, Wonkblog, "Lawrence Summers: One last time on who benefits from corporate tax cuts" by Lawrence H. Summers:

If Larry Summers believed his argument that corporations should be taxed, he would argue for taxing not for profit corporations. His arguments are underpinned by the belief that the government is a wiser spender of the tax money than a non-governmental entity, such as a private corporation, or individual. Either Summers' argument is true for all entities or it is true for none. To tax some entities and not all entities requires the government through its tax code to be able to do a better job of picking better investments and winners over losers than our capitalistic system. Experience over hundreds of years has shown that as much as we would like to believe governments can do better than a selfish profit motive owner, the reality is that decisions affected by politics and the self-interest of politicians attempting to remain in office leads to far worse societal outcomes than capitalistic motives. Not for profits and governments are not economically self-sustaining and can only continue to fund their endeavors off the labor and profit of the private sector. Corporate owners and shareholders, who are the beneficiaries of rising asset values and stock prices, are better deciders of how to use their funds to sustain and grow our economy. Taxing corporations creates economic dead weight loss since the money spent by the consumer is less than the money received by the corporation. It also diverts monies into non-productive and inefficient attempts to reduce taxes. Even if all of Summers arguments are correct, by removing or lowering corporate taxes, the cost of government is shifted to individual taxes, and individuals will receive a truer price signal that shows how much government involvement in their daily lives really costs. With truer price signals, individuals will have a much better picture of the cost and value or lack of value of government programs.

Budgets And Deficits: Spending Less On Worthwhile Projects: A Reprint

A reprint of my decade old blog post about budgeting and deficits that I believe is currently relevant.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Budgeting And Deficit Reduction Is About Spending Less On Worthwhile Projects

Posted By Milton Recht

A comment I posted on Econbrowser, "AP: GOP budget targets agency that warned of tsunami" posted by Menzie Chinn:

Americans cannot afford to fund every worthwhile project. Budgeting is about admitting dollars are limited and setting project priorities. Just like a household that goes to the grocery with a fixed budget. The household cannot afford to buy every appealing delicious or nutritious food item in the store that catches their eye. Some items must stay on the shelf and not go in the cart.

Looking at any government project or expense in isolation is unfair. You have to look at all of the items together and decide which are the ones you want to keep and fund and which are the one you want to pass on.

Would you rather have a Tsunami warning system, headstart, a no fly zone over Libya, heating fuel subsidies for the poor, housing rent subsidies for the poor, incentives for converting to solar energy, etc. A great majority of the things the government spends money on are worthwhile, but which are the keepers and which are the unfunded and shelved.

The choices are tough. There is no right or wrong answer or choice, but it is unfair to discuss just one project in isolation. It makes it seem as if there is no reason other than politics not to fund a project and that is not the case when one is trying to reduce a deficit and balance a budget. In budgeting, sometimes very worthwhile funding must be curtailed.

It is the bright, rational do-gooder people who look at defunding of a project in isolation that are the biggest political force against budget balancing and deficit reduction. They are for deficit reduction, but they are not willing to make the hard choices, set priorities and limit funding with the understanding that some good projects will not get money.

China's 2019 Green House Gas (GHG) Emissions Exceeded Total From OECD And All 27 EU Member States: China's GHG Emissions Were 2.5 Times US Emissions: Charts

From Rhodium Group, "China’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Exceeded the Developed World for the First Time in 2019" by Kate Larsen, Hannah Pitt, Mikhail Grant, and Trevor Houser, May 06, 2021:

Global greenhouse gas emissions estimates for 2019*** China alone contributed over 27% of total global emissions, far exceeding the US—the second highest emitter—which contributed 11% of the global total (Figure 1). For the first time, India edged out the EU-27 for third place, coming in at 6.6% of global emissions.

Source: Rhodium Group

China’s emissions exceeded emissions from developed countries
In 2019, China’s GHG emissions passed the 14 gigaton threshold for the first time, reaching 14,093 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MMt CO2e) (Figure 2). This represents a more than tripling of 1990 levels, and a 25% increase over the past decade. As a result, China’s share of the 2019 global emissions total of 52 gigatons rose to 27%. [Footnote omitted.]

 

Source: Rhodium Group

US Fuel Mix For Electric Power Generation, 1990-2019: Chart

From Beyond the Numbers: Prices & Spending, vol. 10, no. 10 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2021), "Trends in electricity prices during the transition away from coal" by William B. McClain:

Shifts in fuel mix over time
In the United States, the generation of baseload electricity, defined by the Energy Information Administration as the minimum amount of electric power required to maintain mechanical and thermal efficiency of the grid system, historically was met through large coal-powered plants. Starting in the early 2000s, there was rapid growth in domestically produced natural gas from shale formations and other nonconventional sources. As a result, natural gas prices declined 60.1 percent between 2003 and 2019. This, combined with rapid advances in technology for renewable generation, supported a shift away from coal. In addition to being a source of baseload power itself, natural gas has the ability to quickly ramp up, which helps handle intermittency from renewable power sources like the sun or wind. Chart 3 [Below] illustrates the share of total U.S. electric power generation from 1990 to 2019, by fuel source. The chart shows the stark decline of coal and the growth in natural gas and renewable power. Relative fuel-mix contributions from nuclear and hydroelectric power sources have both remained relatively flat over the period. [Footnotes omitted.]

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

Biden's Combined Federal State Capital Gains Tax Rate: DC, CA, NY, NJ Total Rates Over 50 Percent: Map

From Tax Foundation, April 23, 2021, "Top Combined Capital Gains Tax Rates Would Average 48 Percent Under Biden’s Tax Plan" by Garrett Watson and Erica York:

President Joe Biden’s American Families Plan will likely include a large increase in the top federal tax rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends, from 23.8 percent today to 39.6 percent for higher earners. When including the net investment income tax, the top federal rate on capital gains would be 43.4 percent. Rates would be even higher in many U.S. states due to state and local capital gains taxes, leading to a combined average rate of 48 percent compared to about 29 percent under current law.

***

Source: Tax Foundation

Thirteen states and the District of Columbia would have a top combined capital gains tax rate north of 50 percent. California, New York, and New Jersey would have combined rates of more than 54 percent. Top combined rates in some localities would go even higher. For example, New York City levies a local capital gains rate of 3.876 percent, which means an investor would pay an all-in rate of nearly 58.2 percent. Residents of Portland, Oregon would face a top capital gains rate of 57.3 percent.

State-By-State Average Of K-12 Schools Offering Full-Time, In-Person Instruction: Chart

From Reason, "Republicans Open Schools, Democrats Still Keeping Them Closed: The latest data underscore an appallingly partisan split on what should be a more science-based decision." by Matt Welch, 4.19.2021:

... state-by-state average of K-12 schools offering full-time, in-person instruction, as updated April 18 by Burbio:

Source: Burbio Via Reason

Do you see the pattern? The 10 most open states on the left—Wyoming, Arkansas, Florida, South Dakota, Utah, Nebraska, Montana, Texas, North Dakota, and Louisiana, in that order—have wildly disparate COVID mortality, ranging from Utah's 67 per 100,000 residents to South Dakota's 221. But what they have in common is politics: All 10 voted in 2020 for Donald Trump, all 10 have Republican-controlled state legislatures, all except Louisiana have a Republican governor, all except Montana have two Republican U.S. senators, and in all 10 a majority of the state's delegation to the House of Representatives hails from the GOP.

Deep red states open schools.

What about the 10 most closed states on the right side of that bar graph? Maryland, Oregon, California, Washington, New Mexico, Hawaii, Virginia, Illinois, New Jersey, and Nevada also share more in their politics than they do in the pandemic. All 10 voted for Joe Biden in 2020, all 10 have Democratic-controlled state legislatures, all except Maryland have a Democratic governor, all 10 have two Democratic U.S. senators, and in all 10 a majority of the state's House delegation sits on the left side of the aisle.

Deep blue states keep schools closed.

Per Capita State And Local Government Tax Collections

From Tax Foundation, "How High Are State and Local Tax Collections in Your State?" by Janelle Cammenga:

Tax collections of $11,311 per capita in the District of Columbia surpass those in any state. The five states with the highest tax collections per capita are New York ($9,829), Connecticut ($8,494), North Dakota ($7,611), New Jersey ($7,423), and Hawaii ($7,332). The five states with the lowest tax collections per capita are Tennessee ($3,286), Alabama ($3,527), South Carolina ($3,705), Mississippi ($3,767), and Arizona ($3,824).

Source: Tax Foundation

Some of these results are less intuitive than others. For example, even though North Dakota ranks third for state and local tax collections, the resource-rich state generates a substantial part of its tax revenue from severance taxes on oil and natural gas, which are borne mainly by consumers outside North Dakota. As a result, North Dakota joins the ranks of high-tax states in terms of per capita collections even though the tax burden on North Dakotans is comparatively low.

 It’s worth noting that severance taxes are only one of many examples of the “tax exporting” that states engage in. Travel taxes—such as hotel, car rental, and meal taxes—also disproportionately impact nonvoting nonresidents who have few means of redress.

Overview of the 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook: CBO Slide Presentation

From Congressional Budget Office, "Overview of the 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO Director, to the Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board, Published on Mar 24, 2021:

An Overview of the 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook from Congressional Budget Office

$10 Billion Operation Warp Speed Worth $1.8 Trillion To US Alone For Saving Lives And Accelerating Return To Normalcy

From supply and demand (in that order), Tuesday, March 2, 2021, "How Chicago Economics is Helping End a Pandemic: Interview with Murphy, Philipson, Topel" by Casey Mulligan:

Covid-19 has disrupted much of human life, but Operation Warp Speed has drastically mitigated the costs of the virus. The $10 billion federal program launched in April 2020 encouraged and accelerated the development and mass manufacturing of COVID-19 vaccines, streamlined Federal approval for vaccines and their manufacture, and provided Federal funds for private vaccine research and advance-purchase orders. COVID-19 vaccines are currently being administered to the general public at least six months earlier than expected. Vaccinating the population against COVID-19 six months earlier was worth about $1.8 trillion to the U.S. alone in terms of lives saved and accelerating the return to normal schooling, work, socializing, etc. (Mulligan and Philipson 2020).***

$22,000 To A Family Of Four As Direct Stimulus Payment: My Posted Comment To WSJ Opinion

My posted comment to The Wall Street Journal, Opinion, "Wrong Stimulus, Wrong Time: Biden wants twice the spending of 2009, though the economy is far stronger now." by The Editorial Board:

$1.9 trillion to 332,000,000, approximate current estimated US Population, is a one time payment of over $5,700 per person; over $17,000 to a family of 3 and over over $22,000 to a family of 4. It could be even more, if wealthy people are excluded from the payment. The $1,400 proposed per person is less than 25 percent of the funds available. The general public doesn't realize that they are getting scraps and that most of the money in the proposed law is used to payoff politicians' political friends and is not going into their pockets. A wiser public would demand that more of the money go directly into their own pockets.

Society That Puts Equality Before Freedom Will End Up With Neither: The Greatest Success Of The Civil-Rights Movement Was Getting Government Off The Backs Of Blacks By Defeating Jim Crow

From The Wall Street Journal, Opinion, "Progressives Put the Racial ‘Equity’ Squeeze on Biden: The left wants a spoils system on steroids. If the president gives it to them, heaven help us." by Jason L. Riley, Feb. 2, 2021:

Milton Friedman said the “society that puts equality before freedom will end up with neither,” while “the society that puts freedom before equality will end up with a great measure of both.”***The greatest success of the civil-rights movement wasn’t a new government program but getting government off the backs of blacks by defeating Jim Crow. Nothing the government has done since then in the name of advancing blacks has been more effective than simply ending government-sponsored discrimination. Black poverty fell by 40 percentage points between 1940 and 1960. It continued to decline in the wake of Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society interventions, but at a much slower pace. Similarly, blacks were joining middle-class professions at a much faster pace in the 1940s, ’50s and ’60s than they would after affirmative-action programs were implemented in the 1970s. In fact, we now have evidence that suggests racial preferences have been not only ineffective in helping the black poor but also counterproductive. After the University of California system ended race-conscious admissions policies in 1996, black and Hispanic graduation rates rose dramatically.*** If history is any guide, what blacks most need from the government is for it to get out of the way. Stop forcing poor black children to attend failing schools by denying them school choice. Stop increasing the minimum wage and pricing black young adults out of jobs. Stop implementing occupational licensing regulations that prevent black entrepreneurs from starting a business. And stop pretending that policing is a bigger problem than violent crime in poor black neighborhoods. In 2019 there were 492 homicides in Chicago, according to the Sun-Times, and only three of them involved police.

From Cafe Hayek, "The Market Makes People Pay for Their Prejudices" by Don Boudreaux:***

***[T]his scene [from 42] does capture much of the manner in which market competition actually works to impose on bigots the costs of exercising their irrational prejudices. It depicts also the fact that many bigots, unwilling to pay those costs, change their behavior for the better.
It’s beautiful to behold!
Contrary to popular belief, such competition was at work in America during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, as Bob Higgs documents in his book [Robert Higgs, 1977, Competition and Coercion: Blacks in the American Economy, 1865-1914]. Indeed, the reality of such competition is what drove state and local governments during the Jim Crow era to forcibly impose racial discrimination by enacting Jim Crow legislation.

Parler, Trump, Et Al: State First Amendment Rights And PruneYard Shopping Center v Robins

In 1980, The US Supreme Court ruled that that the State of California Constitution's first amendment rights can go beyond the rights provided by the US Constitution, (PruneYard Shopping Center v Robins). The US Supreme Court upheld a California court decision that a privately owned shopping mall open to the public must allow, under California state first amendment rights, the distribution of political literature and the solicitation of signatures for a petition by a group of students, despite mall rules that prohibited such activity. 

Other states, besides California, have free speech protection rights in their constitutions that are more expansive and protective of speech than the US Constitution. Twitter, Facebook, Apple, Google and numerous other technology firms are headquartered in California and subject to California laws and constitution. 

Can Parler successfully sue the technology companies in California court that have removed its platform from their services? Could Parler get an immediate temporary restraining order in California stopping the removal of Parler?

Full Text Of Texas US Supreme Court Presidential Election Complaint Against Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, And Wisconsin

Full text of Texas US Supreme Court presidential election complaint against Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, State of Georgia, State of Michigan, and State of Wisconsin, embedded below and sourced from Texas Attorney General website, https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/sites/default/files/images/admin/2020/Press/SCOTUSFiling.pdf:

Parler CEO John Matze Community Town Square View Of Free Speech On Social Media Sites

From Fox News "Parler CEO says platform serves as 'community town square': The platform is free of restrictions and censorship, CEO told told "Tucker Carlson Tonight" " by Yael Halon:

Parler takes a far more laissez-faire approach, offering a platform where users, "liberated from restrictions," can publically express their ideas.

"We just want to sit back and say 'social media was supposed to be about the people. It was supposed to be about people having a free voice, being able to be, you know, liberated from restrictions,'" [Parler CEO John] Matze said. "And so that's what we are here to offer is a community town square for people to have discussions."

***"Well, when you go out in public people say crazy things all the time," Matze responded. "Everybody has opinions and some of them might not be the norm, right? It's not against the law to have those opinions. It's not against the law to express yourself, you know. And if you like one political candidate or another or you believe or don't believe in climate change or whatever it might be, you know, you shouldn't be taken offline because of it."

Addressing his critics, Mazte asked, "Do you believe that we should have somebody in, you know, New York, let's say in the middle of Times Square telling you what you can and cannot say? Because that's what these companies are doing."

Butter And Whole Milk Sales Are Booming

From Bloomberg Opinion, "Butter Is Booming, Whole Milk Is Back and Dairy Is Surviving: Dietary trends come and go, but for four decades this industry has been finding ways to keep consumption growing." by Justin Fox:

Nationwide, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, butter production is up 6% over the first nine months of the year and is on track to top two billion pounds for the first time since 1943.

***

Even within milk sales there’s been an interesting shift lately, with whole milk outselling 2% milk for the first time in 15 years in 2018 and building on its lead in 2019, and skim milk sales drifting downward. If you’re going to drink milk, and not smashed-up almonds mixed with water, then you might as well drink the milkiest kind of milk.

 

 

Blacks Were Moving Toward Parity With Whites Well Before The Civil Rights Revolution: Robert Putnam

From The Wall Street Journal, Opinion, "With Justice Barrett, Is the End Near for Racial Preferences? A new majority may stop equivocating on affirmative action, which has impeded black mobility." by Jason L Riley:

The “progress toward equality for black Americans didn’t begin in 1965,” write Harvard political scientist Robert Putnam and his co-author, Shaylyn Romney Garrett, in their new book, “The Upswing.” “By many measures, blacks were moving toward parity with whites well before the victories of the Civil Rights revolution, despite the limitations imposed by Jim Crow.” Moreover, “after the Civil Rights movement, that longstanding trend toward racial equality slowed, stopped, and even reversed.” The emphasis is the authors’.

In the 1940s and ’50s, black-white gaps were not only shrinking in income, educational attainment, homeownership rates and other measures. The gaps were shrinking at unprecedented rates that have never been repeated, even during the subsequent era of affirmative action.

If anything, the evidence shows that racial preferences have coincided with slower black upward mobility. After the University of California system ended its race-conscious admissions policies in the 1990s, black graduation rates rose. A policy intended to increase the size of the black middle class was in practice limiting its growth. It would be difficult to identify a government program coming out of the 1960s that did more to help blacks than what black were doing to help themselves before the program.

Medical Care Providers' Inexperience With Covid-19 Increased Mortality Rates And Contributed To High US Coronavirus Death Rates

From SciTechDaily, "New Research Helps Explain Dramatic Declines in COVID-19 Death Rates" by NYU Langone Health / NYU School Of Medicine, October 22, 2020:

After New York became the epicenter for the pandemic in early March, with tens of thousands dying from COVID-19, experts had expected that the infection would remain as deadly in the following months. 

Instead, a new investigation showed that by mid-August the death rate in those hospitalized with coronavirus-related illness had dropped from 27 percentage points to about 3 percentage points. Led by researchers at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, the study showed that a younger, healthier group of people were getting infected and were arriving at the hospital with less-severe symptoms than those infected in the spring.

However, the researchers’ analysis showed that these factors accounted for only part of the improvement in survival. The rest, they suspect, resulted from health care providers’ growing experience with the coronavirus. For example, physicians learned that resting COVID-19 patients on their stomachs rather than their backs and delaying the use of ventilators as long as possible were more effective practices, say the study authors. Drugs likely helped as well. In addition, other factors such as decreasing hospital volumes, less exposure to infection, and earlier testing and treatment, may have played a role. [Emphais added.]

***[Leora] Horwitz [MD, an associate professor in the Department of Population Health at NYU Langone Health] says the new study, publishing online next week in the Journal of Hospital Medicine, is the most detailed analysis to date of coronavirus death rates over time. By accounting for age, obesity, and other key factors, the researchers were able to eliminate some explanations from the analysis.

Teaching Changes And The Decline Of Americans International Ranking In Adult Literacy And Student Reading Assessment From 1950s To 2015

From The Wall Street Journal, "Bad Teaching Is Tearing America Apart: Education’s dumbing down frays the bonds of citizenship and is hardest on the poor, says E.D. Hirsch, the man who wrote the book on cultural literacy." by Naomi Schaefer Riley:

He [E.D. Hirsch] cites both history and neuroscience in explaining how education went wrong. It began in the 1940s, when “schools unbolted the desks and kids were no longer facing the teacher.” Instead children were divided into small groups and instructed to complete worksheets independently with occasional input from teachers. “That was also when our verbal test scores went down and the relative ranking of our elementary schools declined on a national level.” On the International Adult Literacy Survey, Americans went from being No. 1 for children who were educated in the 1950s to fifth for those in the ’70s and 14th in the ’90s. And things have only gotten worse. Between 2002 and 2015, American schoolchildren went from a ranking of 15th to 24th in reading on the Program for International Student Assessment. [Emphasis added.]

The problem runs deeper than the style of instruction, Mr. Hirsch says. It’s the concept at its root—“child-centered classrooms,” the notion that “education is partly a matter of drawing out a child’s inborn nature.” Mr. Hirsch says emphatically that a child’s mind is “a blank slate.” On this point he agrees with John Locke and disagrees with Jean-Jacques Rousseau, who thought children’s need to develop according to their nature. Both philosophers make the “Cultural Literacy” list, but “Locke has to make a comeback” among educators, Mr. Hirsch says. “The culture is up for grabs, and elementary schools are the culture makers.”

Mr. Hirsch is a man of the left—he has said he is “practically a socialist.” But he bristles at the idea that kids should read only books by people who look like them or live like them. He recalls how reading outside his own experience enabled him “to gain perspective.”

Biggest Jump In Used Car/Truck Prices Since 1969

From Bloomberg, Economics, "U.S. Inflation Quickened in August on Sharp Gain in Used Cars" by Reade Pickert:

U.S. inflation quickened in August, driven by the sharpest monthly gain in used-vehicle costs since 1969 and consistent with a gradual pickup in prices as the economy recovers from the pandemic-induced downturn.***Excluding volatile food and fuel costs, the so-called core CPI -- viewed by policy makers as a more reliable gauge of price trends -- also increased 0.4% from the prior month after a 0.6% jump in July that was the largest in almost three decades. A 5.4% surge in the cost of used cars and trucks accounted for more than 40% of the gain in the core index. On an annual basis, core inflation measured 1.7% following 1.6% in July.[Emphasis added.]

Competitive Closings Of Least Productive Firms Raises US Productivity Average

My published comment to The Wall Street Journal article, "Rising Education Levels Provide Diminishing Economic Boost: Share of workers with college degrees has kept growing, but productivity gains have been tepid" by Josh Mitchell:

US productivity statistics are an average of the economy. Competitive closings of the least productive firms raises the US productivity average. The firms that remain in business do not need to become more productive for US productivity to rise. As long as the least productive firms that are closing on average have lower productivity than the average of the firms that remain, whether or not the remaining firms increase productivity, the economy wide productivity numbers will show an increase. The change in US productivity represents additive factors: the effect of low productivity firms closing, the effect of remaining firms that do not increase productivity but have a higher productivity than the closing firms, and the effect of firms that can increase the productivity of their output. When there are fewer low productivity firms in the economy and more higher productivity firms surviving, average US productivity will not show historical large productivity increases.

US Has Fewer Physicians Per Population Than Comparable Countries, More Hospital Administrators, Fewer Hospital Beds Per Person

From Peterson-KFF, Health System Tracker, "How do U.S. health care resources compare to other countries?" by Nicolas Shanosky, Daniel McDermott, and Nisha Kurani, Posted: August 12, 2020:

This chart collection looks at the availability of hospital resources and healthcare professionals in the United States and similarly wealthy countries. A related chart collection examines how the U.S.’s healthcare resources factor into the nation’s preparedness for the coronavirus pandemic.
***There are fewer physicians per capita in the U.S. than there are in most comparable countries

Source: Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker

***

The U.S. has the highest percentage of specialists among comparable countries

Source: Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker

From Peterson-KFF, Health System Tracker, "How prepared is the US to respond to COVID-19 relative to other countries?" by Rabah Kamal, Nisha Kurani, Daniel McDermott, and Cynthia Cox, Posted: March 27, 2020:

***Compared to most similarly large and wealthy countries, the U.S. has fewer practicing physicians per capita but has a similar number of licensed nurses per capita. Looking specifically at the hospital setting, the U.S. has more hospital-based employees per capita than most other comparable countries, but nearly half of these hospital workers are non-clinical staff. Overall, the U.S. has fewer hospitals and hospital beds per capita compared to other similar countries.***U.S. hospitals have more employees than most comparable countries, but many are administrative

Source: Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker

***

The U.S. has fewer total hospital beds per person than similar countries

Source: Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker

Real Value of $100 In The US States: Map

From Tax Foundation, "What is the Real Value of $100 in Your State?" by Garrett Watson:

This map shows the real value of $100 in each state. Across the United States, the cost of living fluctuates, as prices for the same goods may be cheaper in some areas—such as rural parts of Arkansas or South Dakota—than in large cities in states like New York or California. This means that the same amount of money can buy comparatively more in a low-price state than a high-price state.

***

Source: Tax Foundation

A Generation's Earning Power Will Be Lost From School Closures: Low Income Students Will Suffer The Most

From City Journal, "Don’t Cancel School: Prolonged closures are their own crisis." by Allison Schrager:

The American Academy of Pediatrics has stressed that reopening is critical for children’s emotional and educational development. There is also an overwhelming economic case to be made in favor of reopening. In fact, the cost of not reopening schools will last a generation. The benefits of universal education are so deep and well-documented that it’s unthinkable to consider discounting it for another semester. Education is the most effective means of economic mobility and is critical for long-term success. It explains much of America’s income growth and development in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Today, moreover, schools provide important child-care services. As Goldman Sachs found, if schools don’t open, an estimated 15 percent of America’s labor force can’t return to work.

The negative effects of closed schools will be profound and generational. Economists reviewed the loss of earnings from school disruptions during World War II in Austria and Germany. They found that missing a year of school means 9.4 percent to 16.2 percent lower earnings for up to 40 years, with bigger losses for children with less educated parents. More recent estimates from 139 countries indicate a year of schooling increases earnings by 9 percent. Even brief school closures, such as the 1916 polio pandemic, lowered levels of educational attainment.

The costs won’t be suffered uniformly. Online schooling is better than no school, but it’s hardly an improvement for many students. As in wartime Germany and Austria, better-educated parents can make up the difference by helping their children with online education and adding more homeschooling. Some parents will hire tutors, create learning pods, move to communities that offer in-person education, or find private schools that reopen. Children from low-income households, however, will pay the biggest cost. Indeed, the impact on low-income families will last for years, creating a level of inequality so large that even Bernie Sanders-style levels of taxation won’t fix it. And yet progressives, who normally obsess over inequality, respond by asking affluent parents to forgo educating their children, in an act of class solidarity.

Growing Wage Gap In Developed Economies, Not Just US: Skill Inequality From Workers' Education And Productivity Growth Differences Are Cause

From National Review, Capital Matters, The Economy, "Growing Wage Inequality Is Caused by Growing Skill Inequality" by Edward P. Lazear:

Is growing inequality the fault of capitalism, of a growing ability of American firms to exploit their workers, or of increasing greed? Both the international and domestic evidence is inconsistent with those explanations. In fact, the growing wage gap seen in the US is common to most developed economies. Top earners have enjoyed higher wage growth than the median worker throughout the OECD countries. A subset of institutionally and political diverse countries, including the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand and Canada among others, have all experienced growing wage inequality similar to that seen in the United States. If such varied countries — some of which are held out as examples of the social-democratic ideal — are all seeing growing wage dispersion, it is unlikely that capitalism, increased monopoly power, or growing greed is the cause.

If not capitalism per se, what is the explanation for growing wage inequality? The answer is increasing dispersion in labor-market productivity. In labor markets where firms must compete with one another to hire and retain workers, wages tend to reflect a worker’s productivity. The evidence supporting this linkage is strong. If wages at the bottom are not growing as rapidly as wages at the top, perhaps productivity among the least skilled workers is not growing as rapidly as productivity among the most skilled workers. In fact, that is exactly what appears to be happening.

Industries vary in their use of skilled workers. For example, in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “Apparel Manufacturing” industry, the average level of education is 11.7 years. In “Information Services and Data Processing Services,” it is 15.5 years. Those industries that have the most educated workers have the highest levels of productivity measured as total value added per hour worked. Those same industries also tend to have witnessed the greatest growth in productivity over the past two decades. In fact, the differences in productivity growth between educated and less-educated workers far outstrips the differences in wage growth between educated and less-educated workers. This evidence suggests that wages are lagging for the lowest half of American workers primarily because productivity growth is lagging for those workers.

Open Schools: My Comment To WSJ, "A Phase-Four Flop"

My published comment to The Wall street Journal opinion, "A Phase-Four Flop: The latest proposals have everything but a growth agenda." by The Editorial Board:

A lot said about the coronavirus can be said about the flu. The flu kills old people and those with serious comorbidities. The flu hospitalizes many and some need ventilators. Put old people with the flu into nursing homes and assisted living, the flu infection and death rates will increase. Having the flu is a horrible experience. Flattening the curve with lock downs, etc was never meant to stop Covid-19. It was used successfully to spread cases into the future to ease the hospital burden. Reopening is allowing the delayed infections to happen now, as we see with mostly younger people with a low death rate. Many more children die from the flu than from coronavirus. It is more deadly for kids to go to school in a flu season then now. Children need bacterial and viral exposure for a healthy adult immune system. Kids need school to learn, and socialize. Poor kids need school meals. Schools are babysitters that parents need to be able to go back to work.

Standardized Ranking Of Coronavirus Cases And Deaths By 1M Population

The 50 US States plus the District of Columbia are ranked below by cases per 1 million population and deaths per 1 million population. The data is from Worldometer. Per 1 million ranking is a standardized and fairer comparative indicator of the impact of Coronavirus at the local level.

For example, Florida is ranked fifth in cases per 1 million population, but ranked 24th in deaths per 1 million population. Texas is ranked 18th in cases per 1 million population, and ranked 33rd in deaths per 1 million population.

New York is ranked first in cases per 1 million population, and ranked 2nd in deaths per 1 million population. New Jersey is ranked 4th in cases per 1 million population, but ranked first in deaths per 1 million population.

Of course, these number will change over time as more cases occur and more deaths happen.

Cases Per 1 Million Population Ranking

Deaths Per 1 Million Population Ranking

Low-Income Consumer Spending Rebounds To Pre-Crisis Levels

From The Wall Street Journal, "The Daily Shot: Spending by Low-Income Consumers Is Back to Pre-Crisis Levels" by Lev Borodovsky:

4. Spending by low-income consumers is back to pre-crisis levels.

Source: WSJ The Daily Shot
Source: Hugo Ste-Marie, Portfolio & Quantitative Strategy Global Equity Research, Scotia Capital

Gross Domestic Product by State, 1st Quarter 2020: Bureau of Economic Analysis

From Bureau of Economic Analysis, "Gross Domestic Product by State, 1st Quarter 2020: Decreases in All States and the District of Columbia in the First Quarter":

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2020, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the first quarter ranged from -1.3 percent in Nebraska to -8.2 percent in New York and Nevada.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Link to PDF of full news release plus tables.

Declaration of Independence: Transcription And Image

[Image of  Declaration of Independence after transcription.]

From The National Archives, "Declaration of Independence: A Transcription:"

In Congress, July 4, 1776.

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

---

[Signatures Omitted]

Note: The above text is a transcription of the Stone Engraving of the parchment Declaration of Independence (the document on display in the Rotunda at the National Archives Museum.) The spelling and punctuation reflects the original.

From The National Archives, "Stone Engraving of the Declaration of Independence:"

Source: The National Archives

Men's Average Age And Education Level At Birth Of First Child

From The Wall Street Journal, "Why Some Men Delay Fatherhood: First-time fathers are now more than 27 years old, on average; lengthening transition to adulthood is one reason" by Jo Craven McGinty:

The National Center for Family and Marriage Research, where Dr. Guzzo is an affiliate, analyzed the education, relationship status and average age at fatherhood among men ages 40 to 44 using data from the National Survey of Family Growth.

A potential reason for the delay in fatherhood, the researchers found, is what demographers call the “lengthening transition to adulthood”—the point at which men (and women) feel as if they’ve achieved adult status.

Source: The Wall St Journal

Where Seniors Work: Percent Of Workers 65 And Older In Selected Occupations: Chart

From The Wall Street Journal, "Older Workers Grapple With Risk of Getting Covid-19 on the Job: Coronavirus takes toll on many employees over 60 who continued to work through the pandemic" by Jacob Bunge, Alexandra Berzon and Kris Maher:

Source: Wall Street Journal

US March-April Retail Sales By Category: Chart

From The Wall Street Journal, The Daily Shot, "The U.S. Economy to Shrink by Nearly a Third This Quarter" by Lev Borodovsky:

Source: The Wall St Journal, The Daily Shot

Coronavirus Outbreak In New York City Became The Primary Source Of Infections Around The United States

From The New York Times, "Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks: The coronavirus outbreak in New York City became the primary source of infections around the United States, researchers have found." by Benedict Carey and James Glanz:

Source: The New York Times

New York City’s coronavirus outbreak grew so large by early March that the city became the primary source of new infections in the United States, new research reveals, as thousands of infected people traveled from the city and seeded outbreaks around the country.