Friday, January 13, 2017

CBO Expects A 30-Year Decline In US Labor Force Participation

From Congressional Budget Office, "CBO’s Long-Term Projections of Labor Force Participation" Posted by Joshua Montes, Xiaotong Niu, and Julie Topoleski on January 13, 2017:
What Are CBO’s Current Projections of Labor Force Participation?
CBO projects that the rate of labor force participation (that is, the number of people who are either working or seeking work as a share of the civilian noninstitutionalized population age 16 or older) will decline from 62.8 percent in 2017 to 61.0 percent in 2027 and to 59.2 percent in 2047—constituting a drop of 3.7 percentage points over 30 years (see the figure below). The projected decline in the participation rate is faster for men than for women.

Labor Force Participation Rate Graph
Source: CBO

The continued retirement of the baby-boom generation is the most important factor driving down the overall participation rate.


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