Cleveland Fed Predicts 1 Percent Yearly GDP Growth And 1.5 Percent Chance Of Recession

From "Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth: January 2011" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland:

Projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 1.0 percent rate over the next year, the same projection as in November and December.

Using the yield curve to predict whether or not the economy will be in recession in the future, we estimate that the expected chance of the economy being in a recession next January at 1.2 percent, a slight drop from December’s 1.5 percent and November’s 2.3 percent.

Read the complete Cleveland Fed article and prediction here.