Wednesday, December 29, 2010

The Unrelatedness Of Global Warming And The East Coast Snow Blizzard

Pepper...and Salt
(Source Wall St Journal, 12/29/10)
Despite what one believes, hears on Cable and Network TV, and reads in newspapers and blogs, weather events like snow blizzards, record setting cold temperatures, heat waves, torrential rains and droughts, where you live or in other parts of the world, do not prove or disprove global warming and climate change.

Global warming is about the increase of a few degrees (probably around 5 degrees Fahrenheit) in the Earth's atmospheric average temperature.

There will be tremendous temperature variation in different parts of the world in the amount of temperature change. Some areas will see more change than the average, some will see less, some by the average amount and some parts may even see temperatures decline.

The average 5 degree change, plus or minus one or two degrees, is a high probability prediction. The extreme event of a much greater temperature change is not impossible under the current models. It is a low probability, but a possible, unlikely frightening and devastating occurrence.

Because there is so much weather variation around the globe at any given time and during a year or a decade, there is tremendous uncertainty about the effect global warming will have on any particular place's weather. Some places may see little or no change. Some places may see tremendous increases or decreases in temperatures. Some places may see big changes in weather patterns and others may see no changes at all.

Global warming will increase ocean water temperatures and will increase snow and ice melting at the polar caps. In different parts of the world, sea levels and coastal flooding will occur, with variations as to the amount of flooding and sea level rise.

Global warming makes no predications about any particular hurricane, tornado, tsunami, snow blizzard, torrential rain or drought. Global warming does not make any predictions about the amount or seasonal totals of those weather events, locally, regionally, or worldwide.

Global warming just says that due to the increase retention of heat in the atmosphere, the average temperature of the world will rise by a few degrees. Global warming does not predict how this will affect weather in any particular part or parts of the world.

The science of global warming is much more certain than the science about the effects global warming will have on the earth's weather. Global warming is a much more sure thing than how it will affect us.

What we should do to stop and to reverse global warming and when is speculation and guesses at this point in time.

Global warming is a concern because it will affect people's lives. Some people will be affected more than others. Those that are most affected will see their livelihoods, their wealth, and their countries' wealth affected.

It could cause mass migrations and movement of animals, plants and people, or it could not. It could change disease prevalence or it could not.

How and if it affects future weather in any particular place or country is unknown and unpredictable.

So, all those blogs, talk shows, news commentators and media stories about weather events and global warming are like Santa's sleigh tracking stories on Christmas Eve. The stories are make believe and media filler to retain and attract audiences.

The severity of the recent East Coast snow blizzard is unrelated to global warming. The storm proves nothing about the existence or non-existence of global warming.

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