Open Schools: My Comment To WSJ, "A Phase-Four Flop"

My published comment to The Wall street Journal opinion, "A Phase-Four Flop: The latest proposals have everything but a growth agenda." by The Editorial Board:

A lot said about the coronavirus can be said about the flu. The flu kills old people and those with serious comorbidities. The flu hospitalizes many and some need ventilators. Put old people with the flu into nursing homes and assisted living, the flu infection and death rates will increase. Having the flu is a horrible experience. Flattening the curve with lock downs, etc was never meant to stop Covid-19. It was used successfully to spread cases into the future to ease the hospital burden. Reopening is allowing the delayed infections to happen now, as we see with mostly younger people with a low death rate. Many more children die from the flu than from coronavirus. It is more deadly for kids to go to school in a flu season then now. Children need bacterial and viral exposure for a healthy adult immune system. Kids need school to learn, and socialize. Poor kids need school meals. Schools are babysitters that parents need to be able to go back to work.

Standardized Ranking Of Coronavirus Cases And Deaths By 1M Population

The 50 US States plus the District of Columbia are ranked below by cases per 1 million population and deaths per 1 million population. The data is from Worldometer. Per 1 million ranking is a standardized and fairer comparative indicator of the impact of Coronavirus at the local level.

For example, Florida is ranked fifth in cases per 1 million population, but ranked 24th in deaths per 1 million population. Texas is ranked 18th in cases per 1 million population, and ranked 33rd in deaths per 1 million population.

New York is ranked first in cases per 1 million population, and ranked 2nd in deaths per 1 million population. New Jersey is ranked 4th in cases per 1 million population, but ranked first in deaths per 1 million population.

Of course, these number will change over time as more cases occur and more deaths happen.

Cases Per 1 Million Population Ranking

Deaths Per 1 Million Population Ranking

Low-Income Consumer Spending Rebounds To Pre-Crisis Levels

From The Wall Street Journal, "The Daily Shot: Spending by Low-Income Consumers Is Back to Pre-Crisis Levels" by Lev Borodovsky:

4. Spending by low-income consumers is back to pre-crisis levels.

Source: WSJ The Daily Shot
Source: Hugo Ste-Marie, Portfolio & Quantitative Strategy Global Equity Research, Scotia Capital

Gross Domestic Product by State, 1st Quarter 2020: Bureau of Economic Analysis

From Bureau of Economic Analysis, "Gross Domestic Product by State, 1st Quarter 2020: Decreases in All States and the District of Columbia in the First Quarter":

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2020, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the first quarter ranged from -1.3 percent in Nebraska to -8.2 percent in New York and Nevada.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Link to PDF of full news release plus tables.

Declaration of Independence: Transcription And Image

[Image of  Declaration of Independence after transcription.]

From The National Archives, "Declaration of Independence: A Transcription:"

In Congress, July 4, 1776.

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

---

[Signatures Omitted]

Note: The above text is a transcription of the Stone Engraving of the parchment Declaration of Independence (the document on display in the Rotunda at the National Archives Museum.) The spelling and punctuation reflects the original.

From The National Archives, "Stone Engraving of the Declaration of Independence:"

Source: The National Archives

Men's Average Age And Education Level At Birth Of First Child

From The Wall Street Journal, "Why Some Men Delay Fatherhood: First-time fathers are now more than 27 years old, on average; lengthening transition to adulthood is one reason" by Jo Craven McGinty:

The National Center for Family and Marriage Research, where Dr. Guzzo is an affiliate, analyzed the education, relationship status and average age at fatherhood among men ages 40 to 44 using data from the National Survey of Family Growth.

A potential reason for the delay in fatherhood, the researchers found, is what demographers call the “lengthening transition to adulthood”—the point at which men (and women) feel as if they’ve achieved adult status.

Source: The Wall St Journal

Where Seniors Work: Percent Of Workers 65 And Older In Selected Occupations: Chart

From The Wall Street Journal, "Older Workers Grapple With Risk of Getting Covid-19 on the Job: Coronavirus takes toll on many employees over 60 who continued to work through the pandemic" by Jacob Bunge, Alexandra Berzon and Kris Maher:

Source: Wall Street Journal

US March-April Retail Sales By Category: Chart

From The Wall Street Journal, The Daily Shot, "The U.S. Economy to Shrink by Nearly a Third This Quarter" by Lev Borodovsky:

Source: The Wall St Journal, The Daily Shot

Coronavirus Outbreak In New York City Became The Primary Source Of Infections Around The United States

From The New York Times, "Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks: The coronavirus outbreak in New York City became the primary source of infections around the United States, researchers have found." by Benedict Carey and James Glanz:

Source: The New York Times

New York City’s coronavirus outbreak grew so large by early March that the city became the primary source of new infections in the United States, new research reveals, as thousands of infected people traveled from the city and seeded outbreaks around the country.

One-Third Of COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients Show Signs Of Delirium: Best Practices Not Used In The Turmoil

From ScienceBlog, "One-Third Of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients Show Signs Of Delirium", April 27, 2020, Harvard University:

... [Harvard Professor] Sharon Inouye ... developed a [delirium] program that hundreds of hospitals have used to reduce cases of the condition by an estimated 40 percent.

... best practices for reducing delirium risk are getting lost in the turmoil of COVID-19 care.

Early data from peer-reviewed studies suggest that one-third of hospitalized COVID-19 patients of all ages, and two-thirds of those with severe disease, show signs of delirium, said Inouye. ...

... patients who experience delirium in the hospital remain hospitalized longer than their peers, have more complications and are more likely to die during their hospital stay or in the following year, need long-term care or develop cognitive impairment, including dementia.***... overuse of chemical restraints such as antipsychotics and other sedating drugs. ... when a patient starts to get agitated, providers get scared for the patient’s safety and their own safety and feel they have to sedate the patient. But sedating them is not always needed and leads to many complications. [Emphasis added.]

Decline In Healthcare Spending Caused Half The Drop In First-Quarter GDP: The Irony Of Crowded Hospitals, Overworked Doctors And Much Less Healthcare For Everyone Else

From The Wall Street Journal, Real Time Economics, "Newsletter Special Edition: The Expansion Is Over" by Jeffrey Sparshott:

Personal consumption of services was less than 30% of GDP in 1957 and 1968. Services now dominate our economy, contributing 47% of GDP last year, and they have borne the brunt of social distancing. Services consumption, from travel to restaurants to doctors’ visits, tumbled 10.2%, annualized, in the first quarter, accounting for roughly all the net decline in quarterly output. Unlike goods, services can’t be stored in inventory and are seldom imported, so almost every dollar not spent on services comes straight out of Americans’ incomes. —Greg Ip
***Perhaps surprisingly, healthcare spending accounted for nearly half the drop in first-quarter GDP. Yes, the world is in the middle of a healthcare crisis. In all likelihood, consumers are putting off—or unable to schedule—elective and other apparently nonurgent procedures.

Source; The Wall St Journal, Real Time Economics

As Many Extra Non-Covid Deaths As Covid Deaths Occurred During Height Of Epidemic: Did Hospitalization Restrictions On Treating Non-Covid Illnesses, Social Isolation, Job Losses And Business Closures Increase Deaths?

A Washington Post article (excerpted below) indicates that there were an estimated 15,400 excess deaths from March and through April 4, only half of which are attributable to Covid-19.

From The Washington Post, "U.S. deaths soared in early weeks of pandemic, far exceeding number attributed to covid-19: An analysis of federal data for the first time estimates excess deaths -- the number beyond what would normally be expected -- during that period." by Emma Brown, Andrew Ba Tran, Beth Reinhard and Monica Ulmanu:

Source: Washington Post

In the early weeks of the coronavirus epidemic, the United States recorded an estimated 15,400 excess deaths, nearly two times as many as were publicly attributed to covid-19 at the time, according to an analysis of federal data conducted for The Washington Post by a research team led by the Yale School of Public Health.

The excess deaths — the number beyond what would normally be expected for that time of year — occurred during March and through April 4, a time when 8,128 coronavirus deaths were reported.

The excess deaths are not necessarily attributable directly to covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. They could include people who died because of the epidemic but not from the disease, such as those who were afraid to seek medical treatment for unrelated illnesses, as well as some number of deaths that are part of the ordinary variation in the death rate. The count is also affected by increases or decreases in other categories of deaths, such as suicides, homicides and motor vehicle accidents. [Emphasis added]

Coronavirus Data Is Missing A Baseline Mortality Rate For Those With And Without Covid-19

My posted comment to The Wall Street Journal, "Do Lockdowns Save Many Lives? In Most Places, the Data Say No: The speed with which officials shuttered the economy appears not to be a factor in Covid deaths." by TJ Rodgers:

The data is missing a baseline comparison. For a long time, the only people tested were those who has [had] symptoms similar to Covid-19, fever, etc. The number of Coronavirus cases of those tested is about 19 percent. The overall US death rate of those who tested positive is about 5.5 percent. Old people with secondary illnesses are the bulk of the 5.5 percent deaths. The symptomatic 81 percent, the negatives, did not have Covid-19. What was their death rate? Did seniors with secondary illnesses who tested negative for Covid-19 die at the same or greater rate than those who tested positive for Covid-19? We do not know. If the death rates of ill seniors with and without Covid-19 are not substantially different, why the hysteria and focus of all our attention on the Coronavirus? For example, seniors can die of pneumonia. Is there a difference if it is Covid-19 pneumonia or not a Covid-19 pneumonia? Probably only for politicians, mass media and medical reimbursement.

Cars And Trucks Are 40 Percent Of Oil Demand: Chart

From The Wall Street Journal, "The Daily Shot: Jet Fuel, Heating Oil at Levels Not Seen Since After 9/11" by Lev Borodovsky:

Source: The Wall St Journal, The Daily Shot

Did Epidemiologists Grossly Underestimate The Public's Willingness And Ability To Reduce Daily Social Contacts?

From Gallup, Gallup Blog, April 21, 2020, "Americans' Social Contacts During the COVID-19 Pandemic" by Jonathan Rothwell:

Adults practicing social distancing generate at least 90% fewer contacts per day than those who are making little effort to social distance, according to new Gallup data. Those who completely or mostly isolate themselves generate about five contacts per day, compared with an average of 52 for those not attempting to isolate themselves.***Yet, closing workplaces may not be the only way to mitigate contact and suppress viral transmission. Workers who visit their work site but have made changes in how they do their job reduced contacts by 29% to 69%.

Why Measuring Contacts Matters
In epidemiological models, social distancing has large effects on expected infection growth. Yet, different modeling teams have used varying assumptions for the efficacy of social distancing when it comes to reducing contacts. Getting these estimates right would thus appear crucial to accurately understanding the risks and rewards of different mitigation policies.

For example, in research published by public health scholars at Columbia University (PDF download), these scholars have assumed that social distancing can reduce at most 40% of daily contacts. An influential model from Imperial College London defined "social distancing of the entire population" as reducing workplace contacts by 25%, household contacts by 25%, and social or nonwork contacts by 75%.***Only 3% of adults and 4% of workers have not made any attempt to isolate themselves.

Largest State Unemployment Fund Declines: Chart

From The Wall Street Journal, Real Time Economics, "Newsletter: States Burn Through Unemployment Funds" by Jeffrey Sparshott:

And nearly half of all U.S. states have logged double-digit percentage declines in their trust-fund balances since the end of February, the month before the pandemic triggered shutdowns that led to widespread job losses, Sarah Chaney reports.

States use trust funds to pay regular unemployment benefits, while the extra $600 payments recently added for workers laid off during the pandemic are funded through a federal stimulus package.

Source: The Wall St Journal, Real Time Economics

Comparison: 2017-18 Flu Season: 61,000 US Deaths Vs Covid-19 35,500 Deaths: 65+ Seniors Were 83 Percent Of Flu Deaths (50,900, 65+ Flu Deaths)

Will the US and State governments close businesses, order wearing face masks and require social distancing during the next H3N2 Flu epidemic?

From Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), "2017-2018 Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths and Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Averted by Vaccination in the United States":

CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2017–2018 season was high with an estimated 45 million people getting sick with influenza, 21 million people going to a health care provider, 810,000 hospitalizations, and 61,000 deaths from influenza (Table 1). The number of cases of influenza-associated illness that occurred during 2017-2018 was the highest since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, when an estimated 60 million people were sick with influenza.
***... 67% of hospitalizations occurred in older adults aged ≥65 years. Older adults also accounted for 83% of deaths, highlighting that older adults are particularly vulnerable to severe disease with influenza virus infection.

New York State, which has the bulk of US coronavirus cases, has about 51,000 cumulative hospitalizations in total compared to the past 2017-18 flu season national total of 810,000 hospitalizations.

From STAT, a December 22, 2017, article about the severity of that season's H3N2 flu strain and social gatherings spreading the flu, "Happy holidays? Flu season is raging and family gatherings may make it worse" by Helen Branswell:

That means lots of people will be sick over the holidays; lots already are. And the multi-generational family gatherings that are part and parcel of the holidays will fuel the spread of the nasty virus.***This year could well be a severe year. The viruses causing most of the illness right now are from an influenza A family called H3N2. Those viruses are especially hard on older people and H3 seasons generally are more severe that seasons when H1N1 or influenza B viruses are dominant.

Unfortunately the H3N2 component of the flu shot is an under-performer, often offering protection that is in the 30 percent range. (The other components more commonly offer between 50 percent and 70 percent protection.) So even people who have been vaccinated may find themselves coming down with flu, [Dr. Daniel] Jernigan said.

Private Sector Employment By Firm Size: Chart

From E21, "Covid-19 Accelerates Small Businesses’ Woes" by Allison Schrager:

Source: Manhattan Institute Via E21

... They [small businesses] traditionally were an engine of innovation and job creation, but in recent years they become a smaller part of the economy. They still employ many Americans but not as many as they used to.

Gross Domestic Product By State: 4th Quarter And Annual 2019

From US Bureau of Economic Analysis, News Release, "Gross Domestic Product by State: 4th Quarter and Annual 2019" (or PDF with tables):

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the fourth quarter ranged from 3.4 percent in Washington and Utah to -0.1 percent in West Virginia.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

***

GDP by State, Annual 2019

Real GDP increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2019. The percent change in real GDP ranged from 4.4 percent in Texas to 0.6 percent in Nebraska.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

NYS Coronavirus COVID-19 Deaths BY Age Group

From Daily Voice, "COVID-19: New Data On Deaths By Age Group, County Released By New York State" by Joe Lombardi:

Source: Daily Voice

New data on the number of deaths in New York due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) by age group and county has been released by the state health department.

The age group with most of the state's 4,159 COVID-19 deaths is 70 to 79 with 1,096 (26.3 percent). It's followed closely by the 80-89 age group with 1,076 (25.8 percent).