Comparison: 2017-18 Flu Season: 61,000 US Deaths Vs Covid-19 35,500 Deaths: 65+ Seniors Were 83 Percent Of Flu Deaths (50,900, 65+ Flu Deaths)

Will the US and State governments close businesses, order wearing face masks and require social distancing during the next H3N2 Flu epidemic?

From Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), "2017-2018 Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths and Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Averted by Vaccination in the United States":

CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2017–2018 season was high with an estimated 45 million people getting sick with influenza, 21 million people going to a health care provider, 810,000 hospitalizations, and 61,000 deaths from influenza (Table 1). The number of cases of influenza-associated illness that occurred during 2017-2018 was the highest since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, when an estimated 60 million people were sick with influenza.
***... 67% of hospitalizations occurred in older adults aged ≥65 years. Older adults also accounted for 83% of deaths, highlighting that older adults are particularly vulnerable to severe disease with influenza virus infection.

New York State, which has the bulk of US coronavirus cases, has about 51,000 cumulative hospitalizations in total compared to the past 2017-18 flu season national total of 810,000 hospitalizations.

From STAT, a December 22, 2017, article about the severity of that season's H3N2 flu strain and social gatherings spreading the flu, "Happy holidays? Flu season is raging and family gatherings may make it worse" by Helen Branswell:

That means lots of people will be sick over the holidays; lots already are. And the multi-generational family gatherings that are part and parcel of the holidays will fuel the spread of the nasty virus.***This year could well be a severe year. The viruses causing most of the illness right now are from an influenza A family called H3N2. Those viruses are especially hard on older people and H3 seasons generally are more severe that seasons when H1N1 or influenza B viruses are dominant.

Unfortunately the H3N2 component of the flu shot is an under-performer, often offering protection that is in the 30 percent range. (The other components more commonly offer between 50 percent and 70 percent protection.) So even people who have been vaccinated may find themselves coming down with flu, [Dr. Daniel] Jernigan said.

Private Sector Employment By Firm Size: Chart

From E21, "Covid-19 Accelerates Small Businesses’ Woes" by Allison Schrager:

Source: Manhattan Institute Via E21

... They [small businesses] traditionally were an engine of innovation and job creation, but in recent years they become a smaller part of the economy. They still employ many Americans but not as many as they used to.

Gross Domestic Product By State: 4th Quarter And Annual 2019

From US Bureau of Economic Analysis, News Release, "Gross Domestic Product by State: 4th Quarter and Annual 2019" (or PDF with tables):

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the fourth quarter ranged from 3.4 percent in Washington and Utah to -0.1 percent in West Virginia.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

***

GDP by State, Annual 2019

Real GDP increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2019. The percent change in real GDP ranged from 4.4 percent in Texas to 0.6 percent in Nebraska.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

NYS Coronavirus COVID-19 Deaths BY Age Group

From Daily Voice, "COVID-19: New Data On Deaths By Age Group, County Released By New York State" by Joe Lombardi:

Source: Daily Voice

New data on the number of deaths in New York due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) by age group and county has been released by the state health department.

The age group with most of the state's 4,159 COVID-19 deaths is 70 to 79 with 1,096 (26.3 percent). It's followed closely by the 80-89 age group with 1,076 (25.8 percent).

CDC March 21, 2020 Update: 24,000 Influenza Deaths Including 155 Children This Season

From Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report, "Key Updates for Week 12, ending March 21, 2020:"

Key Points

***
• Pneumonia and influenza mortality levels have been low, but 155 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season. This number is higher than recorded at the same time in every season since reporting began in 2004-05, except for the 2009 pandemic.
• CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu.

At the time of publishing this post, there were 100,392 Coronavirus cases and 1,543 deaths in the US. Let's hope deaths from the Coronavirus wil not reach the level of deaths from the Flu.

For the current numbers of Coronavirus cases and deaths:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Unanswered Coronavirus Question

The coronavirus may be a substitution of one cause of death of older, severely ill people for another cause on a death certificate. Stopping the virus might not decrease the mortality rate of the most likely affected individuals.

So far, most of the people dying from the coronavirus are older, have multiple serious health problems and more likely male. On average, an 85 year old male has almost a 10 percent one year mortality rate, a 10 percent chance of dying in one year when not adjusted for the health of the individual, A 90 year old male has a 16 percent chance of dying in one year. Individuals who have multiple serious health problems have much higher mortality rates than the above average actuarial numbers.

The important unanswered question about the coronavirus is whether or not the virus is increasing the mortality rate of severely ill older people? Whether the virus is causing excess deaths in epidemiology terms? If someone is so ill that they would have likely died from heart failure, flu, pneumonia or some other non Covid-19 cause in the next few weeks, dying from the coronavirus and listing it as the cause of death is misleading. It gives the public the false impression that but for the coronavirus the individual would have an extended life and not have died from other causes around the same time.

If stopping the virus does not increase the expected life of infected ill individuals, is it worth shutting down the economy?

Addendum
As more insurance companies modify their existing health insurance policy coverage to fully pay for coronavirus outpatient and in-hospital testing and treatment, doctors will have incentives to list more coronavirus diagnosis as the primary cause of death on medical records and death certificates in place of other causes. The number of deaths due to coronavirus will certainly be inflated by some amount and we should expect to see a sharp increase in proportional deaths around the time of expanded health care insurance coverage.

Are We Misreading COVID-19 Statistics? Where Is A Statistical Epidemiologist When You Really Need One? Total Deaths Vs Excess Deaths: Coincident Vs Causal: Contagion Rate Vs Morbidity And Mortality: Aged Adjusted Death Rate

Since death is a natural phenomenon of life, fear of death from a disease, such as the Coronavirus COVID-19, is rational and a major health concern requiring emergency measures, if the virus does the following two things:

1. Does the virus increase the number of deaths in an age group above the normal mortality rate? In epidemiology terminology: Does the Coronavirus cause Excess Deaths?


2. Does the virus cause death from various health factors to occur sooner, i.e. shorten life expectancy of an ill person? In epidemiology terminology: Does the Coronavirus cause Premature Deaths?

Excess Deaths
The average US death rate from the known cases of Coronavirus is currently around 1.5 percent, (127 deaths in 8055 Coronavirus cases at the time of publishing this blog post). With many undiagnosed and recovered US Coronavirus cases still unknown, the death rate is likely very much lower than the current 1.5 percent average rate.

Looking at the Social Security Administration Actuarial Life Table for 2016, which is not adjusted for the health of individuals, males have to be 65 years old or older to have a one year mortality rate greater than the COVID-19 average mortality rate of 1.5 percent. Females have to be 70 years old or older to have a one year mortality rate greater than the COVID-19 average mortality rate of 1.5 percent. A 70 year old male has a 2.3 percent one year mortality rate.

At 85 years old, the one year mortality rate is 9.6 and 7.3 percents, respectively. By 90 years old, the one year mortality rates jump to 16 and 13 percents, respectively.

Most of the COVID-19 deaths are occurring in older people who have serious pre-existing health conditions. Their mortality rates are higher, probably much higher, due to their illness than the general population average Social Security actuarial mortality rates.

Absent more detailed contrary statistics from a Statistical Epidemiologist that includes disease mortality rates by age, illness and COVID-19 infection presence, the average Coronavirus data is not showing an excess US population death rate from the virus.

Coincidence Coincident Vs Causality
It appears that the news and our politicians are confusing coincidence coincident with causality.

Imagine a hospital with patients in two wings, Wing A and Wing B, with each section containing severely ill patients with a 50 percent chance of dying within a month. Suppose by chance, the patients in one of the wings, Wing B, get infected with a virus. The staff diagnoses the infection and reports it to health authorities. A few weeks later, the hospital reports to authorities that half the patients in Wing B with the virus died and the others in that wing did not die or get worse.

The news headline would read, "50 percent of hospital patients with the virus died." Without a comparison to the identical, but virus free population, the 50 percent death rate is meaningless. If 50 percent of the patients in the other wing who were not infected with the virus also died, then there are no excess deaths due to the virus. The diagnoses of Wing B patients having the virus infection is a coincident factor. It it something that happened at the same time, but it is not a causal factor, a cause, of any deaths in Wing B.

Coincidence Coincident, and not causality, seems to be the state of our current COVID-19 virus data. We know the virus was present. We do not know it caused the deaths.

Premature Deaths
Looking at the SSA Actuarial Table, one can see that about 10 percent of all 85 year old males and 7 percent of all 85 year old females will die within a year. For a 90 year old, the one year death rate jumps to 16 and 13 percent.

Do we have any reliable data showing that COVID-19 infection has decreased very old senior citizen life expectancy with their already high mortality rates? Probably not.

Since many of the seniors who have died, purportedly from Coronavirus, have been seriously ill, if there were any shortening of remaining life, it may have been, if it occurred at all, for a short time of a few days or a few weeks.

Contagion Vs Morbidity VS Mortality
A high contagion rate is often mentioned about the Coronavirus COVID-19. A highly infectious disease, a high contagion rate disease, means that the disease is easily transmitted from person to person and easily spreads throughout a population. The fact that a disease is easily transmitted, does not indicate that a disease is dangerous nor does it say anything about the effect the disease will have on an individual. The virus infection could have low morbidity. The infection could be innocuous and even unnoticeable with no short or long term effects.

The fact that the Coronavirus is Contagious and has some Morbidity, symptoms, is not an indication that the disease affects Mortality rates. The common cold is highly infectious. It can cause discomfort and generally has a low mortality rate, except for those who have a very high risk for infection, such as immunosuppressed individuals or those who have certain pre-existing health conditions.

Aged Adjusted Death Rates
Comparisons are often made to other countries that are infected with the virus. The percentage numbers will be misleading unless one adjusts for the different percentages in each age group in each country. On the surface, the virus seems to affect different age segments differently. To be able to accurately compare the US to other areas of the world, the numbers for each country's infection and death rate need to be adjusted for different percentages of each population age segment in each country. The process will result in Age Adjusted Death Rates that can be used to accurately compare country death rates.

In a few years, after the studies appear, it will interesting to see if all the extra precautions put into place were warranted or an extreme over-reaction,. We will eventually find out whether the economic harm to the economy and individuals through business and government closings and self-isolation exceeded any harm that may have come form the COVID-19 Coronavirus.

Shift Government Focus From The Demand Side Of Medical Care To The Supply Of Medical Care To Lower Health Care Costs

My posted health care cost comment to John Cochrane's blog, The Grumpy Economist, "Health policy wonks and the preservation of human capital":

Shift the focus from the demand side of medical care, i.e., insurance, government subsidies (Medicare for all, Medicaid, Medicare, ACA), and price controls, to a focus on increasing the supply of medical care providers. Lower the barriers to entry for health care providers by lowering the licensing requirements and decreasing the years of education and training it takes to become an independent medical provider. Increasing the supply of medical providers until there is an oversupply will increase competition and productivity. Do the equivalent for hospitals and health facilities. Competition and productivity will remove low quality, high price inefficient providers from the marketplace and lower the costs of medical care. Lower medical care costs will lower insurance costs because insurance is just reimbursement for the cost of the use of medical care. As medical care and hospital costs decrease through productivity, insurance premiums will decline and more people will be able to afford health care. The high cost of medical care and medical insurance is a result of a limited supply of providers and low medical care productivity.

About 5% Of Americans Work More Than One Job

From E21, "Bernie’s Wrong: Americans Now Less Likely to Work 2 or 3 Jobs" by Allison Schrager:

The front-runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination, Bernie Sanders argues one reason the economy is “broken” is that "Millions of Americans are forced to work two or three jobs just to survive."

But the number of Americans working more than one job has actually been declining over the years and is only about 5%. Most multiple job holders have a full-time job and a part-time job. Only 5% of multiple job holders have two full-time jobs. Women are slightly more likely to be multiple job holders.

Source:  E21

US Mortgage Foreclosures At 35-Year Low

From The Wall Street Journal, "The Daily Shot: U.S. Foreclosure Rate Drops to 35-Year Low" by Lev Borodovsky:

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, US mortgage delinquencies as a share of total loans dropped to the lowest level in recent decades.

Source: The Wall St Journal, The Daily Shot

And the percentage of mortgages in foreclosure is now the lowest in 35 years.

Source: The Wall St Journal, The Daily Shot

Post Recession, Share Of Job Vacancies Requiring A Bachelor’s Degree Increased From 23 Percent In 2007 To 37 Percent In 2019

From "Structural Increases In Skill Demand After The Great Recession" by Peter Q. Blair and David J. Deming, NBER Working Paper 26680:

ABSTRACTIn this paper we use detailed job vacancy data to estimate changes in skill demand in the years since the Great Recession. The share of job vacancies requiring a bachelor’s degree increased by more than 60 percent between 2007 and 2019, with faster growth in professional occupations and high-wage cities. Since the labor market was becoming tighter over this period, cyclical “upskilling” is unlikely to explain our findings.

PAPEROur main finding is that skill demand has increased substantially in the decade following the Great Recession. The share of online job vacancies requiring a bachelor’s degree increased from 23 percent in 2007 to 37 percent in 2019, an increase of more than 60 percent. Most of this increase occurred between 2007 and 2010, consistent with the finding that the Great Recession provided an opportunity for firms to upgrade skill requirements in response to new technologies (Hershbein and Kahn 2018).

We present several pieces of evidence suggesting that the increase in skill demand is structural, rather than cyclical. We replicate the findings of Hershbein and Kahn (2018)and Modestino, Shoag, and Ballance (2019), who show that skill demands increased morein labor markets that were harder hit by the Great Recession. However, when we extendthe sample forward and adjust for differences in the composition of online vacancies, we find that this cyclical “upskilling” fades within a few years. In its place, we find longrun structural increases in skill demand across all labor markets. In fact, we show that the increase in skill demand post-2010 is larger in higher-wage cities. We also find much larger increases in the demand for education in professional, high-wage occupations such as management, business, science and engineering.***Our results suggest that increasing demand for educated workers is likely a persistent feature of the U.S. economy post-recession.

Homeowners Not Selling: Lowest Inventory Level Of Existing Homes For Sale From Records Since 1982

From The Wall Street Journal, Real Time Economics | Newsletter, "Newsletter: The Number Of Homes For Sale Is At A Record Low" by Jeffrey Sparshott:

The inventory of existing homes for sale last month fell to the lowest level in records dating back to 1982, a potential stumbling block for homebuyers and catalyst for accelerating price gains. "Low inventory remains a problem, with first-time buyers affected the most,” said National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun.

Source: The Wall St Journal, Real Time Economics

Germany's Phase Out Of Nuclear Energy Caused Substantial Social Costs: Primarily Increased Pollution Mortality Risk: 1100 Excess Deaths Per Year

From "The Private and External Costs of Germany's Nuclear Phase-Out" by Stephen Jarvis, University of California, Berkeley - Energy and Resources Group, Olivier Deschenes, University of California, Santa Barbara - College of Letters & Science - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); IZA Institute of Labor Economics, and Akshaya Jha, Carnegie Mellon University, NBER Working Paper No. w26598, Date Written: December 2019, Posted: 31 Dec 2019:

Abstract
Many countries have phased out nuclear electricity production in response to concerns about nuclear waste and the risk of nuclear accidents. This paper examines the impact of the shutdown of roughly half of the nuclear production capacity in Germany after the Fukushima accident in 2011. We use hourly data on power plant operations and a novel machine learning framework to estimate how plants would have operated differently if the phase-out had not occurred. We find that the lost nuclear electricity production due to the phase-out was replaced primarily by coal-fired production and net electricity imports. The social cost of this shift from nuclear to coal is approximately 12 billion dollars per year. Over 70% of this cost comes from the increased mortality risk associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels. Even the largest estimates of the reduction in the costs associated with nuclear accident risk and waste disposal due to the phase-out are far smaller than 12 billion dollars.

From the research paper's conclusion:

Conclusions and Policy Discussion
Following the Fukashima disaster in 2011, German authorities made the unprecedented decision to: (1) immediately shut down almost half of the country's nuclear power plants and (2) shut down all of the remaining nuclear power plants by 2022. We quantify the full extent of the economic and environmental costs of this decision. Our analysis indicates that the phase-out of nuclear power comes with an annual cost to Germany of roughly $12 billion per year. Over 70% of this cost is due to the 1,100 excess deaths per year resulting from the local air pollution emitted by the coal-fired power plants operating in place of the shutdown nuclear plants. Our estimated costs of the nuclear phase-out far exceed the right-tail estimates of the benefits from the phase-out due to reductions in nuclear accident risk and waste disposal costs.

Based On Socioeconomic Factors, 13 Of The 15 Best Regions For African-Americans Are Located In The South: The Other Two, Maryland And DC, Border Southern States

From City Journal, "Against Tribal America: Racialism, from any side of the political spectrum, is a recipe for disaster." by Joel Kotkin:

Evaluating factors like income differentials, homeownership, business ownership, migration, and educational achievement, a study by the Center for Opportunity Urbanism (where I’m [Joel Kotkin] executive director) found that, ironically, 13 of the 15 best regions for African-Americans are today located in the old Confederacy, while the other two—Washington and Baltimore—were in border states. The worst performers were Democratic strongholds like Boston, Milwaukee, San Francisco, Minneapolis, and Los Angeles. Blue-state policies—including environmental regulations and higher taxes—also drive out blue-collar businesses that tend to hire minorities and raise housing and other costs. The biggest gap between minority and white homeownership rates—a critical component of the persistent divergence in wealth by race—can be found in left-leaning states like Rhode Island, New York, Massachusetts, and Connecticut.

US Census Population Growth From 1790-2020 By Decade Chart: 2010-2020 Slowest Decade Population Growth Since First Census In1790

From Brookings, "The 2010s may have seen the slowest population growth in U.S. history, census data show: A 2020 census preview of population and congressional reapportionment" by William H. Frey, January 2, 2020:

The nation’s population growth from 2018 to 2019 grew by a mere 0.48%, according to newly released Census Bureau estimates. This is the lowest annual growth rate since 1918, and caps off a decade that should show the slowest 10-year population growth since the first census was taken in 1790.

Source: Brookings

Average Age Of US Motor Vehicles

From Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Research, "The Cyclicality of the Aging U.S. Motor Vehicle Fleet" by Bill Dupor:

American car owners have been replacing their vehicles less frequently, causing the U.S. motor vehicle fleet to age (Figure 1).
***

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Figure 2 plots an index of the number of vehicles in use (green line) and an index of per capita new-vehicle sales (blue line). [Each variable in Figure 2 is measured in per capita terms.]

Pre And Post SALT Deduction Tax Cap Chart Shows Wealthy Benefit The Most From SALT Deduction

From Reason, "Eat The Rich? House Democrats Plan To Pass Huge Tax Break for Wealthy Homeowners. The party that's calling for huge tax increases on the wealthy is about to hand wealthier Americans a big tax break that will add to the federal budget." by Eric Boehm:

Democrats are trying to sell the repeal of the SALT caps as a middle-class tax break, but historical evidence shows that it almost exclusively benefits high-earning homeowners who live in parts of the country where you must pay high taxes.

Source: reason 

"Jurisdictions with higher-income residents received more of a benefit than those with lower-income residents," Nicole Kaeding, a vice president at the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax policy center, explained to the House Ways and Means Committee at a hearing earlier this year. "In some ways, it allowed high-tax states and localities to export their tax liabilities to taxpayers in other states, particularly low-tax, low-income states."

It’s What You Study In College - Not Where You Study That Determines Earnings After Graduation

From E21, "For Most College Students, It’s What You Study—Not Where You Study" by Preston Cooper:

[H]ow much students earn after graduating college—where a student goes matters far less than what she chooses to study.

That is one of the principal takeaways from the updated College Scorecard, a federal dataset that reveals how much students at thousands of colleges and universities can expect to earn in their first year after graduation. Critically, the earnings data are now broken down by program of study, so prospective students can compare the earnings of, say, a history major and an engineering major who graduated from the same school. Not every program has data available, but statistics are mostly complete for the large public universities that enroll most of the nation’s undergraduates.

It is probably no surprise that majors like engineering, computer science, and nursing out-earn majors such as history, psychology, and English literature in the job market. At the University of Maryland-College Park, for instance, a history major can expect to earn just $29,000 in her first year after graduation, while a civil-engineering major at the same school has a median starting salary of nearly $65,000.

Source: E21

Unmeasured Illegal Activities Add Over 1 Percent To US GDP

From The Wall Street Journal, "GDP Doesn’t Include Proceeds of Crime. Should It? Sales of illegal drugs would have added $111 billion to U.S. gross domestic product, according to estimate" by Jo Craven McGinty:

When the U.S. calculates its gross domestic product, it only includes things that are legal. But if the wares of drug dealers, pimps, bookies and other black-market denizens were included, the GDP would expand by more than 1%, according to one estimate.

***

Source: The Wall St Journal

***

... Canada has found that accounting for illicit sales of cannabis alone would add around 0.4% to its GDP. The U.K. has estimated that prostitution and illegal drugs represent around 0.4% of its GDP. And in the U.S., Rachel Soloveichik, a research economist with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, has estimated that in 2017, illegal activities would have added more than 1% to the GDP. She presented her analysis last month at the IMF Statistical Forum.

My Comment To WSJ, "How To Fix College Admission": My Answer Is, "Increase Supply"

Highly rated, highly prestigious colleges and universities deny admission to numerous undergraduate applicants who are as qualified as those that are accepted. Qualified applicants demand for admission to the top colleges exceeds the supply of available openings. In most other unregulated situations of unfilled demand, the producer of the service or product, or competitors, would increase the supply to meet the excess demand. Historical prestige and third party college rankings create a barrier that prevent newcomers and lower ranked colleges from competing for the applicants to the top tier schools. As I suggest in the following Wall Street Journal comment, prestige colleges and universities should expand geographically in the US to meet the needs of the excess demand of qualified applicants.

My published comment to The Wall Street Journal, "How to Fix College Admissions: Getting into a top school is a stressful, unpredictable process. Here are 10 ways to make it fairer and more transparent."

Increase supply to meet demand. Top ranked universities and colleges need to geographically expand their brand names. Put campuses across the US to increase enrollment. If their [sic] were multiple campuses across the US that were affiliated or under direct control of top ranked universities, then many more applicants to top schools could get degrees from top ranked schools. There are many qualified PhD's in and outside the US who cannot currently get university teaching or tenure positions. Use them to create prestigious schools across the US. Like any other product, there are winners with big market share and prestige and losers with low prestige and [low] market share. One way would be to eliminate the not for profit status of colleges and universities. A profit motive would force schools to expand their brands across the US, to expand their market share and to meet he [the] needs of a wider range of students, e.g. imagine a Harvard community college 2 year degree in every state.