Taylor Swift's Honest, Wise And Upbeat Commencement Speech To The 2022 NYU Graduation Classes After Receiving An Honorary Doctorate Degree: Video: Transcript

From NYU 2022 All-University Commencement, upon acceptance of her honorary doctorate degree, Dr. Taylor Swift's commencement speech to the 2022 graduating classes.


[Her 23 minute speech starts at 2:51:23]

A full transcript of her speech is available on Billboard.

"Is inflation here to stay?" And "Is inflation dead or hibernating?" 2022 And 2020 Speeches by Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

"Is inflation here to stay?"
Speech by Mr Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department of the BIS, at the Barclays 26th Annual Global Inflation Conference, 25 January 2022.

About a year ago I asked the question: is inflation dead or hibernating? The answer then was that it was merely in hibernation and today I think it's safe to say that this was the right call. But as I revisit the question today, the answer is more complex than one might think. In the short run, things clearly turned out quite differently than I and many others had expected, with higher and more persistent inflation taking hold in many economies. There are grounds for optimism, though, as the pandemic's bottleneck effects will dissipate at some point, secular disinflationary effects remain in place and central banks are there to prevent uncomfortably high inflation from becoming entrenched. But in the longer term, inflation could become a problem again if underlying economic conditions and policy regimes came to resemble those in the 1970s more: a deglobalised world; high public debt; financial repression; highly constrained central bank autonomy; and a larger role of the state in the economy.

"Is inflation dead or hibernating?"
Speech by Mr Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department of the BIS, at the Barclays 24th Annual Global Inflation Conference, 5 October 2020.

Is inflation dead or hibernating? The answer will shape the future of central banking and the global economy. It requires exploring shifts in the tectonic plates of the global economy rather than developments on its surface, ie shifts in secular forces and policy regimes. Looking back, obviously central banks have been instrumental in taming the Great Inflation of the 1970s. But this cannot be the whole story: post-Great Financial Crisis, inflation has remained stubbornly below targets despite major efforts to push it up. Inflation has been very insensitive to economic slack, and inflation expectations appear to be rather backward-looking. Arguably, secular forces such as globalisation and technology have played an important complementary role. Looking forward, in the wake of the pandemic, disinflationary forces are likely to prevail in the near term, owing to excess capacity and the continued impact of the secular forces. But at some point inflation could become a problem again, if underlying economic conditions and policy regimes came to resemble more those in the 1970s: a deglobalised world; high public debt; financial repression; highly constrained central bank autonomy; and a larger role of the state in the economy. If so, the winter of hibernation will have been quite long, but just a winter nonetheless.

CBO Presentation On Use Of Dynamic Analysis

From CBO, "Dynamic Analysis at the U.S. Congressional Budget Office" May 5, 2022, Presentation by Theresa Gullo, CBO's Director of Budget Analysis, to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Committee of Senior Budget Officials:

Summary

CBO's cost estimates focus on the budgetary consequences of proposed legislation, and they generally reflect likely behavioral responses to a proposal—for example, changes in the likelihood that people will claim a government benefit. "Dynamic analysis" refers to something different: instances in which CBO takes into account further behavioral changes that would affect total output in the economy. Those broad macroeconomic changes—which include changes in the labor supply or private investment—resulting from changes in fiscal policy can themselves have additional budgetary consequences. Most legislation does not have significant macroeconomic effects, and by long-standing convention, such consequences are not generally reflected in CBO's cost estimates. [Emphasis added.]

In certain analyses other than cost estimates, CBO studies how proposals that would significantly change federal spending and tax policies would affect the overall economy, as well as how such effects would feed back into the federal budget. Such analyses provide a more complete assessment of a policy's budgetary impact, but are more complex and take more time.

Dynamic Analysis at the U.S. Congressional Budget Office from Congressional Budget Office

PDF doccument of slide presentation availble here.