Thursday, January 23, 2020

Homeowners Not Selling: Lowest Inventory Level Of Existing Homes For Sale From Records Since 1982

From The Wall Street Journal, Real Time Economics | Newsletter, "Newsletter: The Number Of Homes For Sale Is At A Record Low" by Jeffrey Sparshott:
The inventory of existing homes for sale last month fell to the lowest level in records dating back to 1982, a potential stumbling block for homebuyers and catalyst for accelerating price gains. "Low inventory remains a problem, with first-time buyers affected the most,” said National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun.
Source: The Wall St Journal, Real Time Economics

Monday, January 13, 2020

Germany's Phase Out Of Nuclear Energy Caused Substantial Social Costs: Primarily Increased Pollution Mortality Risk: 1100 Excess Deaths Per Year

From "The Private and External Costs of Germany's Nuclear Phase-Out" by Stephen Jarvis, University of California, Berkeley - Energy and Resources Group, Olivier Deschenes, University of California, Santa Barbara - College of Letters & Science - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); IZA Institute of Labor Economics, and Akshaya Jha, Carnegie Mellon University, NBER Working Paper No. w26598, Date Written: December 2019, Posted: 31 Dec 2019:
Abstract
Many countries have phased out nuclear electricity production in response to concerns about nuclear waste and the risk of nuclear accidents. This paper examines the impact of the shutdown of roughly half of the nuclear production capacity in Germany after the Fukushima accident in 2011. We use hourly data on power plant operations and a novel machine learning framework to estimate how plants would have operated differently if the phase-out had not occurred. We find that the lost nuclear electricity production due to the phase-out was replaced primarily by coal-fired production and net electricity imports. The social cost of this shift from nuclear to coal is approximately 12 billion dollars per year. Over 70% of this cost comes from the increased mortality risk associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels. Even the largest estimates of the reduction in the costs associated with nuclear accident risk and waste disposal due to the phase-out are far smaller than 12 billion dollars.
From the research paper's conclusion:
Conclusions and Policy Discussion
Following the Fukashima disaster in 2011, German authorities made the unprecedented decision to: (1) immediately shut down almost half of the country's nuclear power plants and (2) shut down all of the remaining nuclear power plants by 2022. We quantify the full extent of the economic and environmental costs of this decision. Our analysis indicates that the phase-out of nuclear power comes with an annual cost to Germany of roughly $12 billion per year. Over 70% of this cost is due to the 1,100 excess deaths per year resulting from the local air pollution emitted by the coal-fired power plants operating in place of the shutdown nuclear plants. Our estimated costs of the nuclear phase-out far exceed the right-tail estimates of the benefits from the phase-out due to reductions in nuclear accident risk and waste disposal costs.

Friday, January 10, 2020

Based On Socioeconomic Factors, 13 Of The 15 Best Regions For African-Americans Are Located In The South: The Other Two, Maryland And DC, Border Southern States

From City Journal, "Against Tribal America: Racialism, from any side of the political spectrum, is a recipe for disaster." by Joel Kotkin:
Evaluating factors like income differentials, homeownership, business ownership, migration, and educational achievement, a study by the Center for Opportunity Urbanism (where I’m [Joel Kotkin] executive director) found that, ironically, 13 of the 15 best regions for African-Americans are today located in the old Confederacy, while the other two—Washington and Baltimore—were in border states. The worst performers were Democratic strongholds like Boston, Milwaukee, San Francisco, Minneapolis, and Los Angeles. Blue-state policies—including environmental regulations and higher taxes—also drive out blue-collar businesses that tend to hire minorities and raise housing and other costs. The biggest gap between minority and white homeownership rates—a critical component of the persistent divergence in wealth by race—can be found in left-leaning states like Rhode Island, New York, Massachusetts, and Connecticut.

Thursday, January 9, 2020

US Census Population Growth From 1790-2020 By Decade Chart: 2010-2020 Slowest Decade Population Growth Since First Census In1790

From Brookings, "The 2010s may have seen the slowest population growth in U.S. history, census data show: A 2020 census preview of population and congressional reapportionment" by William H. Frey, January 2, 2020:
The nation’s population growth from 2018 to 2019 grew by a mere 0.48%, according to newly released Census Bureau estimates. This is the lowest annual growth rate since 1918, and caps off a decade that should show the slowest 10-year population growth since the first census was taken in 1790.
Source: Brookings

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Average Age Of US Motor Vehicles

From Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Research, "The Cyclicality of the Aging U.S. Motor Vehicle Fleet" by Bill Dupor:
American car owners have been replacing their vehicles less frequently, causing the U.S. motor vehicle fleet to age (Figure 1).
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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Figure 2 plots an index of the number of vehicles in use (green line) and an index of per capita new-vehicle sales (blue line). [Each variable in Figure 2 is measured in per capita terms.]